Croker Sack

"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." — Henry Louis Mencken (1880-1956)

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Klotzbach and Gray Issue Hurricane Forecast for 2008

As noted at Science Daily, this year's hurricane forecast has been released by professors Phil Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University.

What is the probability that the "mainstream news media" will let anyone know that these experts say there is no evident connection between hurricane frequency or intensity and "global warming"?

Read the part of their report that starts on page 25. Here is an excerpt:

Although global surface temperatures have increased over the last century and over the last 30 years, there is no reliable data available to indicate increased hurricane frequency or intensity in any of the globe’s other tropical cyclone basins besides the Atlantic. Meteorologists who study tropical cyclones have no valid physical theory as to why hurricane frequency or intensity would necessarily be altered significantly by small amounts (< ±1oC) of global mean temperature change. In a global warming or global cooling world, the atmosphere’s upper air temperatures will warm or cool in unison with the sea surface temperatures. Vertical lapse rates will not be significantly altered. We have no plausible physical reasons for believing that Atlantic hurricane frequency or intensity will change significantly if global ocean temperatures continue to rise. For instance, in the quarter-century period from 1945-1969 when the globe was undergoing a weak cooling trend, the Atlantic basin experienced 80 major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricanes and 201 major hurricane days. By contrast, in a similar 25-year period from 1970-1994 when the globe was undergoing a general warming trend, there were only 38 major hurricanes (48% as many) and 63 major hurricane days (31% as many). Atlantic sea surface temperatures and hurricane activity do not necessarily follow global mean temperature trends.

The conditions which actually do have an influence on hurricane frequency and intensity are right for a bad season this year, so there will probably be many chances to mislead the American public about the effect of "global warming" on this season's storms. I would bet they won't miss any opportunity to blame it all on "anthropogenic global warming" -- that is, us.

Update, April 11: This looks like bad news for the global warming pushers in the news media. It seems that one of their scientists who had argued that global warming increases hurricane intensity and frequency is having second thoughts.


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