EU Can Do It!

What a relief! According to BBC News the 15 countries which were members of the European Union before this year can possibly meet their Kyoto Protocol commitments.

Europe 'can reach Kyoto target'
By Alex Kirby
BBC News website environment correspondent
Last Updated: Tuesday, 21 December, 2004, 11:27 GMT

The 15 states which were members of the European Union before 2004 can reach their promised greenhouse gas target, the European Environment Agency says.

It says the EU should manage emission cuts slightly larger than those which the Kyoto Protocol requires it to make.

This depends on states living up to all their promises, and on some countries making bigger cuts than they agreed.

Even so, the EEA says, some individual countries will still overshoot their Kyoto targets, some by a large amount.

It says the EU will cut its greenhouse gas emissions by slightly more than required under the Kyoto Protocol, the global climate change treaty, on one condition.

This is that member states implement all the policies, measures and third-country projects they are planning, and that several cut emissions by more than they have to. [Emphasis added.]

So, which countries may not be able to do all they had promised?

The EEA's projections show that at present Denmark, Italy, Portugal and Spain are on course for above-target emissions, some by a wide margin, even with use of the Kyoto mechanisms and additional measures planned.

Portugal is projected to be emitting 53.1% more by 2010 than it did in 1990, and Spain 48.3% more. Greece (38.6%) and Ireland (29.4%) are not far behind.

Germany is in danger of slightly exceeding its emission limit on the basis of existing policies and measures.

The agency says: "This means the EU-15 may reach its 8% reduction target only if the projected failure of these member states to respect their targets is compensated by others making bigger emission cuts than required. [Emphasis added.]

If the “EU-15” can find the right combination of technology, economic recession and dislocation, and purchasing of “emissions credits,” they can accomplish what the Kyoto Protocol demands by 2012.

Then, they simply have to figure out how to do something which would actually have a noticeable effect on “global warming” – as predicted by the computer models which have led the EU to believe that these first steps are needed.